The Atypical Truth About Tesla(s) ...
and the rejuvenating power of FSD Beta (Full-Self-Driving)
(Edited 6/5/23 to reflect recent change in Federal Tax Credit for Model 3; previously $3750, now $7500!)
Tesla is an atypical car company. Atypical because it has successfully kickstarted the EV revolution with paradigm-shifting cars and manufacturing methods, without the usual self-congratulatory swagger characteristic of usual car companies. No product advertising (yet), no marketing or PR departments. Just product visibility on roads, tons of chatter among 3.6 million owners, and countless click-grabbing YouTube videos by enthusiasts. Even so, this approach has given Tesla an EV market share of 68% in the United States, where the Model Y was the most-sold electric vehicle of 2022. And just this week, JATO announced that it was the best selling vehicle in Europe in 2023 Q1, an honor typically held by the utilitarian, seemingly affordable-by-everyone Toyota Corolla.
But being an atypical player in a gigantic, powerful, and entrenched auto industry also makes Tesla susceptible to the dangers of information absence — or frequently, complete misrepresentations that can get as much traction as the truth. As a consequence, media coverage gravitates toward sensational negatives, and the public (for the most part) remains completely unaware of the extent to which Tesla’s auto technology is a positive game-changer.
Public attitudes toward Tesla(s) run along these lines:
Teslas are awesome cars but you have to be rich to own one.
Long trips in Teslas, like any EV, aren’t practical because charging takes way too much time compared to the gas vehicles we have now. EV chargers are slow, unreliable, and pretty scarce. Who wants constant range anxiety?
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised FSD (full-self-driving) for years but hasn’t delivered. It’s way far from reality.
Teslas aren’t safe. They catch on fire, and Tesla Autopilot crashes into highway barriers and emergency vehicles.
So what’s the truth from the perspective of a typical, long-time Tesla owner like me? After almost 5 years and 83,500 miles in a 2018 Tesla Model 3 (310 mile range) with FSD, I feel qualified to give a fairly credible answer. I’ve also had lots of experience with FSD Beta, qualifying for the program back in September 2021 and logging close to 30,000 miles with it since then. FSD Beta is in use at least 95% of the time, whether on interstates, highways, or local roads, and in all kinds of weather.
Do you have to be rich to own a Tesla?
Since the Model 3 and Y became available, definitely not. And even less so recently, with Tesla reducing all its prices to prioritize volume growth over profit growth. The price of the Model Y is now lower than that of the average car or truck — even before federal and state EV incentives enter the equation (Note: state incentives vary widely).
These are Tesla’s latest price and gas savings pages for the long-range Model 3 and Model Y, if ordered in my state of Massachusetts (updated 6/5/23) :
Note that for the Gas Savings calculation, the Model 3 is compared to sedans with 30 MPG fuel efficiency, while the Model Y with its larger size is compared to SUVs at 25 MPG efficiency. Also note that 10,000 miles/year is assumed for the calculations. If you’re like me, you’ll do closer to 20,000 miles/year, which would theoretically result in $4,800 more savings for the Model 3 and $6,000 more for the Model Y, bringing the Price after Potential Savings to an astonishing $26,640 for the Model 3 and $27,490 for the Model Y!
According to Kelley Blue Book, the average price for a new car topped $49,500 at the beginning of 2023. A bare-bones Prius Prime starts at $32,350, and a basic-trim Toyota Corolla starts at $21,550. Even before looking at potential gas savings, long-range Model 3 and Y prices are well within this affordability range (shorter range versions are even less!). When gas savings, maintenance savings, performance specs and other features are taken into account, the Model 3 and Model Y are absolute bargains.
My wife and I can attest to the affordability. Sure, the sticker price in July 2018 was way more than a Corolla, but the almost complete absence of maintenance costs of any kind since taking delivery back then has been nothing short of astounding. No “necessary” service appointments at 5K/10K/20K(etc) miles; few non-warranty expenditures. Until the basic 4-year warranty ran out, our service costs, excluding tires, totalled about $250. The fact that there’s so little to maintain on an EV compared to an ICE (internal combustion engine) quickly starts feeling like free money. But speaking of the Corolla … in Impact Report 2022, Tesla states:
Model 3 total cost of ownership per mile is similar to a Toyota Corolla
That’s pretty astounding!
As regards the above Estimated Gas Savings, here’s a screenshot of our actual charging expenditures for the last 12 months from our Tesla app, which also tracks comparitive gasoline costs (for an ICE sedan with 30 MPG at $3.50/gallon):
Since we drove close to 20,000 miles in the last year, our savings at Tesla’s predicted rate of $800/year should have been around $1600. It was actually much lower at $1043. I chalk up the discrepancy to the high electricity rate in Massachusetts ($0.23/kWh versus $0.15/kWh used in Tela’s estimate) and the fact that we did so much long-distance driving, with much more costly Supercharger rates. But even so, charging was almost 40% less than the gasoline equivlent.
Conclusion: No, you definitely don’t have to be rich to own a Model X or Model Y, especially right now, with incentives and low prices. When you consider value/cost, they’re astounding bargains!
How much of a pain is it to keep charging a Tesla on a really long road trip?
My wife and I love taking long road trips in the Model 3. Our most recent was a month ago, from Newton (MA) to Jacksonville (FL) in four days and returning in two. The trip down included overnights in Washington DC and Durham NC to visit friends, plus one in Savannah GA for a morning’s sightseeing. Charging stops for the way down are shown below (click maps for full size).
On the way back, we did a few hours sightseeing in Charleston SC on the first day and spent the night near Durham NC. We made it all the way home on the second day. All charging stops on the return trip are shown below.
Before getting into how long charging sessions took and how much they cost, let’s talk about EV range and anxiety. In 2016, before the Model 3 was announced, the Chevy Bolt had a range of 238 miles at a price of $37,500, which seemed affordable. The nearest competitor in range was the Tesla Model S with 240 miles, but at $70,000, it was way beyond our price limit. And 240 miles of range seemed like a prescription for range anxiety — maybe not for the Model S, with Tesla’s already robust Supercharger network, but definitely for the Chevy Bolt, which had to rely on really scarce, slow, and unreliable third-party chargers whenever on drives of any distance away from home.
The Model 3 announcement at the beginning of 2016 totally changed the equation for us. Suddenly, there was the option of a Tesla with a comfortable 310 miles of range for $49,000 (before federal and state incentives). This was still a financial stretch, but definitely seemed worth it in order to use plentiful Superchargers and eliminate range anxiety. And for my engineering mindset, the Model 3 was infinitely more exciting than the boring, lumbering Chevy Bolt. So I put down a $1000 deposit as a present to myself on my birthday in October 2016, telling my wife afterwards …
Because of Tesla’s production rampup and huge demand, it took until July 2018 to take delivery. By then, I couldn’t resist Enhanced Autopilot at $5000, and a year later, added FSD for the limited-time bargain price of $2000 (the two are now one FSD option, at $15,000).
With all our long trips in our Model 3, have we ever had any range anxiety? No, not really. We did on the first long trip to Michigan the day after taking delivery, because we didn’t know what to expect. We had serious concerns in December 2018, driving down from Quebec to Newton MA in 0°F weather. But in both cases, we made it to the next Superchargers without problem. Since then, range anxiety has been a non-issue, even last August’s trip to a remote location on the coast of Nova Scotia, north of Halifax, where EV chargers were nonexistent. All our Model 3 needed was a simple wall outlet at our cabin, which easily provided 50-60 miles each night — more than enough for each day’s sightseeing. Interestingly, even an ICE car could have had range anxiety in this situation since gas stations were few and far between! Common AC outlets are everywhere. Gas stations aren’t.
In contrast to other EVs, range anxiety is a non-issue in a Tesla:
its rapidly-growing Supercharger network is extensive, robust and fast (200 miles of range in 15 minutes)
recommended and time-optimized Supercharger stops are automatically added to any navigation route
the in-car display clearly predicts remaining battery level at the next Supercharger or waypoint with high accuracy
as discussed above, common AC outlets are everywhere!
Here’s a chart showing yearly Supercharger growth, as well as growth of fast EV chargers in other networks (number of charging connections):
This rapidly upward trend is bound to accelerate in coming years as a result of the new federal Infrastructure Law. Range anxiety for non-Tesla owners will eventually disappear as a result. But at the moment, Tesla’s charging network is the gold standard and makes Teslas the only EVs offering freedom from range anxiety on long trips. Breaking News: Ford has just recognized this in a new deal with Tesla, allowing Ford EV’s to use Superchargers.
But let’s get back to the Newton MA-Jacksonville FL trip. This is a summary of all 13 charging sessions for the 6 days down and back. Charging times at two hotels are excluded since they had no impact on travel time (charging costs were included).
If you drive a regular (ICE) car, I can almost hear you gasp at seeing 13 charging stops! Let’s take a closer look though. The trip down took about 23 hours (driving time), plus 7 stops averaging 21 minutes each for charging. Time between stops was roughly 2.5-3 hours, the same as any driver or passenger would require for bathroom breaks or just to stretch legs. I would venturse to guess that 21 minutes for each stop is not significantly greater for charging than for peeing/leg-stretching!
As for cost of our trip, total charging was $221. For an ICE car getting 30MPG and gas at $3.50/gallon, it would have been $311. Our Model 3 saved us $90, enough for a really nice dinner.
Finally, some info about the Supercharger experience itself. When a navigation destination is set, which can now be as many stops (waypoints) as needed for an entire trip, optimal-length Supercharger stops are calculated, based on the current battery charge level. Predicted arrival time and battery level for each waypoint and Supercharger are shown on the display; in the case of Superchargers, recommended charging times are also added.
If you’re not an EV geek, you might not understand that usual Li-ion batteries can be safely charged much faster when closer to empty than full. They also charge faster when in an ideal temperature range. Tesla therefore schedules Superchargers for lower charge levels — in my experience between 10% and 25%. If theres an option of more than one Supercharger, it will even choose the one that’s less busy, or one with a higher power rating. In any case, Tesla’s routing and battery use algorithm is so sophisticated that it can prescribe the least charging duration necessary, at really high accuracy. And 30 minutes or so before the stop, it even starts warming the batteries to the ideal temperature for fastest charging.
Most of the time, charging seems to be around 20 minutes. Tesla owners know that getting to the final destination in the fastest time means sticking to the recommended charging duration as tightly as possible. Charging longer, to get closer to 100%, actually makes a trip longer because of greatly decreased charging rates as charge levels increase. But if a Supercharger is at a great outlet mall, by all means get more charge and have fun shopping! Just don’t let it sit there fully charged — you’ll be charged a penalty, and it’s not good for the battery.
A Supercharger stop is something you actually start looking forward to. Just plug in, without any kind of payment process. Walk away, and the Tesla automatically locks up. Find a restroom, take a walk, go shopping, get notified of charging status by the app. Or, just kick back in the comfortable seats and watch streaming TV with theater-grade sound. Who misses smelly gas stations. Heaven!
Conclusion: In a Tesla, there’s absolutely no range anxiety because of intelligent scheduling of Supercharger stops. For us, fuel cost savings on long trips are in the range of 30% versus gasoline. Charging takes scarcely more time than peeing or stretching your legs. You’ll actually start wishing Superchargers weren’t so fast!
Is FSD (Full-Self Driving) real, or just a gimmick?
For the record, here are the levels of Tesla vehicle control, as currently defined by Tesla:
Autopilot
Autopilot includes the following functionality and features:
Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: Matches the speed of your car to that of the surrounding traffic
Autosteer: Assists in steering within a clearly marked lane, and uses traffic-aware cruise control
Enhanced Autopilot
In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot also includes:
Navigate on Autopilot: Actively guides your car from a highway’s on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal and taking the correct exit.
Auto Lane Change: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged.
Autopark: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicular park your car, with a single touch.
Summon: Moves your car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key.
Smart Summon: Your car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to come find you in a parking lot.
Full Self-Driving Capability
In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot, Full Self-Driving Capability also includes:
Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows your car to a stop on approach, with your active supervision
Upcoming:
Autosteer on city streets
The currently enabled Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. Full autonomy will be dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As Tesla’s Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capabilities evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.
The Upcoming entry is where FSD Beta comes in. Owners like myself who purchased Full Self Driving and qualified/opted for FSD Beta receive special over-the-air updates that give their FSD additional capabilities. These are described in FSD Beta release notes:
When Full Self-Driving is enabled your vehicle will make lane changes off highway, select forks to follow your navigation route, navigate around other vehicles and objects, and make left and right turns. Use Full Self-Driving in limited Beta only if you will pay constant attention to the road, and be prepared to act immediately, especially around blind corners, crossing intersections, and in narrow driving situations.
When these features are deemed to perform well enough (very possibly this year, 2023), they will be released to all Tesla FSD owners as a general update. Until then, FSD Beta testers like myself are willing volunteers for Tesla, enthusiastically providing feedback in the form of video clips, audio, and vehicle performance data, feeding a constant stream of training data to Tesla’s AI (artificial intelligence) models. FSD can’t be accomplished without this massive crowd-sourced process. Tesla is the only automobile company doing it at such a scale, which accounts for why Tesla is the undisputed leader in developing a full self driving solution that works anywhere in the world at any time, without tons of expensive, fragile equipment spinning on top of the car (see Waymo).
Having had almost every version of FSD Beta for the last 20 months, I’ve been in awe of the incremental improvements as Tesla’s AI model absorbs more and more situational data. Though there are lots more edge cases to solve, Tesla will undoubtedly perfect it to an acceptable level relatively soon.
But the autonomous performance and assistive and safety features that already exist (I have version 11.3.6, patiently waiting for 11.4.2) far outweigh the remaining problems, to the point that they have totally rejuvenated my driving experience. I should share that I’m a 74-year-old with … let’s admit it … senses that are probably somewhat diminished from what they were at 44. Because of that, finding myself having to drive at night in an ordinary dumb car (a rental for example) creates a bit of anxiety due to increasing sensory distrust, requiring more caution and slower speed (can be dangerous!). Add rain, snow, frantic wipers and headlight glare to that scenario, with harder to see lane markings, and it can get downright scary at times. In contrast, doing the same in my Model 3, with FSD Beta active, restores just enough confidence to eliminate most of this nighttime and weather anxiety. Its constant situational awareness and autonomous/assistive features literally hold my hand and rejuvenate me — all the way back to 44!
Although attentiveness is always required when using FSD Beta, there are countless ways in which its sensors and automated features have redefined my driving experience. These examples top the list, reducing driving to little more than robot supervision:
no need to “owl” my head (and/or body) for 360° visibility because all surrounding vehicles, even in blind spots, are clearly shown on a huge display; remarkably stable day or night, and in extreme weather
extremely stable lane centering that adjusts away from large trucks and leans into curves for optimal comfort
comfortable and dependable slowing in response to cars cutting in from adjacent lanes
smooth, autonomous lane changing upon manual turn signal operation, or automatically at a comfortable distance from upcoming slower traffic — but executed only if it can be safely done
instant speed incrementing with a scroll wheel; automatic response to speed limit changes
ability to limit automatic lane changing, for super-relaxed driving (also saves battery in the slipstream behind big trucks!)
navigates into correct highway exit lanes — better than the usual human in unfamiliar cities; takes exit curves at comfortable speeds
handles the chaos of city streets amazingly well (though city situations need the most improvement)
impressive lane choosing and high quality autonomous turns (for the most part)
impressive pedestrian awareness though frequently hyper-sensitive (understandable at this point)
impressive driving on unmarked country roads (for the most part)
turns traffic slowdowns into rest and relaxation sessions that you actually look forward to (Model 3 audio amazing!)
makes it possible to enjoy surroundings without compromising driving safety (glass roof is awesome!)
reduces driving fatigue immensely
Conclusion: Tesla FSD is definitely getting there. I use FSD Beta constantly. At 74, it has enhanced my senses and rejuvenated my entire driving experience. Feels like it might go to general release by the end of 2023. Even in its current version, it’s nothing short of awesome!
What about safety? Can Teslas and their fancy automation really be trusted?
By now, you won’t be surprised that my answer is “Absolutely!” It will be quite a while before Tesla’s steering wheels and driver controls totally disappear. Until then, the person in the driver’s seat will continue to be totally responsible for safe operation of the car. It’s important to realize that when in Autopilot or Full Self Driving, returning control to the driver takes only a slight tap of the brakes. This should be done whenever a questionable or potentially risky situation arises, and it’s instant. Autopilot, FSD, or FSD Beta are scary only if you take risks and deceive yourself that full autonomy is already here. That’s just plain stupid!
Tesla automatically collects vehicle data in the event of a collision or airbag deployment, and anonymous data at other times if the owner is in agreement. It requires data collection to keep training its AI models, to get as close to perfection as possible (which it will approach but never of course achieve — less true for humans however!).
Tesla’s accident data is better than that of any other car company because of its automatic data collection. This enables it to make the following safety claims in its Impact Report 2022:
In other words, just driving a Tesla, without any “fancy” features engaged, cuts your chance of an accident to 44% of the US average (0.68/1.53=0.44). With Autopilot engaged, in mostly highway driving, the chance is cut to 12% (0.18/1.53=0.12). Even with FSD Beta engaged, in mostly non-highway driving and in the chaos of city streets, the chance of an accident is cut to 20% of the national average — 5 times safer.
If you do have an accident, Teslas are the safest vehicles available in terms of protecting their drivers and passengers. In January, Euro NCAP released its Best in Class 2022 results after extremely stringent testing (download the full report). The Model Y and Model S came out at the very top, besting all other vehicles:
Tesla has made a huge impact on the European car market due to its design and ethos. The company has also been determined to make a name for its brand in safety performance. Tesla Model S and Tesla Model Y are both high achievers in Adult Occupant Protection and both vehicles achieved the highest score of 98% in Safety Assist of all the vehicles in this list. Tesla Model S is also the best in class achiever in the Pure Electric category.
Also in January, Thatcham Research of the UK named the Model Y the winner of its prestigious What Car? Safety Award 2023:
Finally, what about the Tesla battery fires that people seem to bring up? From Tesla’s Vehicle Safety Report:
From 2012 – 2021, there has been approximately one Tesla vehicle fire for every 210 million miles traveled. By comparison, data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation shows that in the United States there is a vehicle fire for every 19 million miles traveled.
This means that chances of a fire while driving a regular car are 11x greater than in a Tesla! A fire in a Tesla doesn’t fail to get coverage though — probably because it’s so relatively rare.
Conclusion: The safety provided by driving a Tesla is leaps and bounds greater than that of the average US non-Tesla car and is rated #1 in Europe. The fire risk is far smaller than the US average.
Favorite YouTube channels for trustworthy news about Tesla(s)
Over the last few years, a number of YouTube channels have become daily favorites for intelligent, unbiased, trustworthy news about Tesla’s cars and Tesla the company. The EV landscape, and the integration of EVs with AI, is progressing at such an incredible pace that without channels like these, keeping up to date would be impossible.
Tesla Daily
Rob Mauer does a gold-standard job of covering all the latest Tesla developments worldwide, including manufacturing numbers and financials. He also does a daily post-closing analysis of TSLA stock performance.Dirty Tesla
Chris is always one of the first FSD Beta users to receive a new version as it rolls out, immediately putting it to the test — even if it’s 3:00am! Since Ann Arbor MI is one of my favorite places in the world, his extensive driving on the U of M campus is an added bonus!Chuck Cook
Chuck is one of the most tenacious FSD Beta testers out there, telling it like it is for each new version. Tesla definitely takes heed of his highly-credibile feedback.Brighter with Herbert
I discovered Herbert only a couple of months ago, but since then, have found his interviews an excellent source of info on all things Tesla and more.CYBRLFT
Kaz uses a Model 3 (standard range) as a Lyft driver and engages riders in interesting conversations that often result in astounded amazement when he reveals to them that FSD Beta, not he, has been doing most of the driving. Great fun!Dr Know-it-all Knows it all
John really does have a PhD, and he really does know a lot — about many subjects, including AI, Tesla, deep learning, Space-X, etc. His ability to convey it all in a way that we can all understand is probably due to his strong background in drama and theater. Check him out!
If you’re seriously considering a Tesla …
There’s an easy way to get some additional freebies from Tesla if you do decide to place an order. Start the order through my referral link and you’ll earn Loot Box Credits that can be redeemed for Tesla awards, which are currently really significant! Here’s the link: https://ts.la/andris37098.
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I know this inaugural article of Mumbling Old Man has been lengthy, but it’s allowed me to put 5 years of thoughts about my amazing Tesla Model 3 and FSD Beta experiences into words. Hopefully, the charts and references will be helpful to those considering a Tesla purchase or just wanting to learn about life with EVs.
Thanks for reading, and please subscribe so that you don’t miss upcoming Mumblings, which will touch on everything from engineering, EVs, AI and rockets to navigation, travel, and sightseeing —- or even politics (?) — whatever feels worthy of a mumbling session!
Very well written and laid out arguments, Andris. I will tweet this to my followers, so that they can share their thoughts here too.
Excellent and thorough article! So informative and interesting, and well written! Can't wait to read more mumblings!